Go hacking

[fejky is inactive :)]

Today i've spent about 600 energy to do my 5 hacks, which gives about 16% success rate. Another player spend 600 for 2 hack.. so my question is, does go hacking show wrong % of success or we are really unlucky?

[Void is a BIG FAGGOT]

Really Unlucky

[Rusty]

Both.
The 52% success rate is actually for BOTH screens, ie 52% to get to the 'continue' button and another 52% to get to the success, giving about 25% actual chance. 16% isn't that far off, so you're also unlucky

[Blanz]

Both.
The 52% success rate is actually for BOTH screens, ie 52% to get to the 'continue' button and another 52% to get to the success, giving about 25% actual chance. 16% isn't that far off, so you're also unlucky

16% IS far off from 26%. And i know how they feel. the other day i had 18 fails in a row. how is that 26%? theres something wrong with the probability imo

[Rusty]

16% IS far off from 26%. And i know how they feel. the other day i had 18 fails in a row. how is that 26%? theres something wrong with the probability imo

Probability of 18 fails in a row is 0.44%. Total number of users that have logged in the last 24hrs: 224. Thus, one person a day will get 18 fails in a row.

Re-reading the origional comment, it is not mentioned whether fejky is hacking for money or for IQ. If for money, the success rate is 0.42², which is 17.6%, very close to your reported rate. Thus, you are actually only slightly unlucky

[Blanz]

16% IS far off from 26%. And i know how they feel. the other day i had 18 fails in a row. how is that 26%? theres something wrong with the probability imo

Probability of 18 fails in a row is 0.44%. Total number of users that have logged in the last 24hrs: 224. Thus, one person a day will get 18 fails in a row.

Re-reading the origional comment, it is not mentioned whether fejky is hacking for money or for IQ. If for money, the success rate is 0.42², which is 17.6%, very close to your reported rate. Thus, you are actually only slightly unlucky

i am currently typing this with a record of 4-33 for the day. that's a 12% success rate. of the 4-5 days i've done this, ive never had anything better than a 20% success rate. this is ridiculous, and its incorrect

[Rusty]

Odds of getting 4/37=1.46%, or one in 68.5
Just very unlucky.

[Blanz]

Odds of getting 4/37=1.46%, or one in 68.5
Just very unlucky.

1.46%, converted to probability is 0.0146. multiply that by yesterday's 18 fails in a row probability, 0.0044, and multiply that by never having a success rate of over 20% for the first 3 days, 0.02. (im too lazy to figure it out, so ill put it at 2%) That makes 1.284 * 10^-6 or 0.000001285, or 0.0001285%. still just unlucky?

[Rusty]

Doesn't work like that.
Oh and another thing: Illminded today said he got busted only 3 times doing his 5. That has odds of 1/37, so it does go both ways.

[Blanz]

Doesn't work like that.
Oh and another thing: Illminded today said he got busted only 3 times doing his 5. That has odds of 1/37, so it does go both ways.

yes it does. to calculate the probability i would be this unlucky two days in a row is to multiply the probabilities. even removing the first three days, 0.0044 * 0.0146 is still ridiculously low, like fractions of a percent. 0.064% thats beyond the normal probability caused by unluckiness

[Rusty]

Have you considered the thousands of other possibility that may have happened? And also that if it wasn't happening to you in a bad way, you wouldn't be complaining? (I don't see Ill coming here complaining that he was victim to a 1/37 chance) And also that you're the only single person reporting this, and as is the nature of probability, anything can happen to an individual?
If you're calculations are correct, 0.00064*224 (number of active players, assuming they all do their hacks) = 0.128
Thus, if anyone within the next 16 days comes and complains that the system is screwed, I'll accept it. Otherwise, you're just unlucky.
In the meantime, I'll look into the hacking statistics and record my successes/failures and post them here, just to get some data

-- Tue, 22 Dec 2009 02:32:44 +0000 --

26-5 today, 8% chance of that situation occurring.

-- Tue, 22 Dec 2009 02:44:17 +0000 --

Further research: Probability of completing hacks with respect to attempts.

Attempts vs Odds

Raw data available on request.

-- Tue, 22 Dec 2009 02:52:04 +0000 --

Even more research (google spreadsheets are great!):
Odds of taking equal to or more than 25 tries a.k.a having odds of 20% or worse are 1 in 3. Odds of it happening 3 days in a row are 1/27 or 3.7%. Thus, six to eight active members of CW are currently experiencing this (two will even be experiencing it for 4 days in a row).

[fejky is inactive :)]

Well, then % chances of success is wrong.. Because it says "Success Rate: 43% " which is not true. So it should be changed in description.

[[7S]Mojo]

ive been 5/6-5/10 every day lvl 10 lyns comp

my bus / hacking / iq is very nice though...gunna attempt Central Intelligence Agency today lets see what happens

[Rusty]

Well, then % chances of success is wrong.. Because it says "Success Rate: 43% " which is not true. So it should be changed in description.

Yes. As with many things in CW, deal with it (its also fun because new players bring it up every so often and debates like this start, so it serves a purpose )

ive been 5/6-5/10 every day lvl 10 lyns comp

my bus / hacking / iq is very nice though...gunna attempt Central Intelligence Agency today lets see what happens

What is your %? Because it is dictated by your bus/hacking/iq.
And remember you have to be lvl 40 to do cia

I also have a question about my previous research, so if anyone is good with statistics I'd appreciate some help

-- Wed, 23 Dec 2009 02:27:00 +0000 --

More data: Today was 23-5. This had a 11.5% chance of occurring.

[{DD} Melka]

Too much whining.

I fail quite a lot aswell, but seriously, I'm lvl 10 with 25 hacking and 50 IQ, of course I'll fail.

Just lvl up your damn hacking if you can't handle to be jailed and waste energy on it now.